However, completing the Circle Line (either in part, as described in CTA’s LPA, or in whole) need not nececessarily create an immediate State Street subway capacity crisis. First, the capacity issue will only be a factor during the peak period. Second, at peak times the demand for north side mainline (Red/Purple) service is sufficiently stronger (18-20 trains per hour) than that on the Dan Ryan corridor (12-15 tph), so that all north side trains need not go all the way to 95th. Six (or more) peak trains per hour from the north side could loop up and around via the circle route without creating any passenger capacity problems on the Dan Ryan branch, all the while keeping State Street subway trains per hour well under the 23-25 tph level where track congestion can start to cause delays. The desire to run full circle during the peak can then be used as another benefit to support securing funding for a Clinton Subway. I believe the city will be better off with both lines, and the strategy works better with Circle first, then Clinton. (Also, although we appear to disagree about the extent to which the Circle Line would actually benefit neighborhood travel, a Clinton Subway megaproject would clearly benefit downtown much more than the neighborhoods — which is another reason for doing Circle first, to prioritize joint neighborhood-downtown benefits over mostly-downtown benefits)

As for neighborhood development, I agree that existing neighborhoods like Ukrainian Village, Pilsen, and Chinatown are not where expanded CBD-level density should be encouraged. But those aren’t the only stops on the Circle Line. Much of the area around the United Center and in the vast expanses of IMD’s property could support very intensive development with minimal (if any) negative impacts on the surrounding neighborhood (most of which in these particular areas is now vacant land — and there’s far more vacant land in these two areas alone than there is along Clinton). Beyond that, the areas around North/Elston, Division/Milwaukee, Cermak/Blue Island, Archer/Ashland, Archer/Halsted, and Clark/18th could all support strategic high density in-fill development without “overrunning” any “great existing neighborhoods.”

Fundamentally, the Circle Line could be a strong, positive tool for transit-supportive city-building. It can also help to break Chicago out of its history of hyper-concentration in the Loop which I don’t think serves the city so well. Yes the Loop proper should (arguably must) remain the city and region’s dominant center, but I think that the “all roads lead to one point” type of transportation planning that this hyper-concentration encourages makes it all to easy to make decisions that are counter to vibrant regional transit. For one, it encourages the prioritization of extreme levels of peak service above all other types of service. Second, it allows ideas like complete abandonment of some radial transit lines to continue to have currency among otherwise rational decison-makers (they argue that traffic can simply concentrate on another radial, as they all end up going the same place — neighborhoods along the abandoned line be damned!). The Circle Line could allow each of the new transfer connections to begin to function as its own nucleus for development, strengthening transit demand along both the radials as well as the circle, in a positively reinforcing manner. As these station areas develop, so to will non-Loop centered travel demand. Most of the travel demand along the Circle Line will come not from two-transfer (i.e., in on Blue, over on Circle, and out on Orange) trips, but rather one-transfer or single-seat trips originating and/or destined for one of the Circle Line stops itself (in on Pink Line, shortcut to Division/Milwaukee; in on Orange Line, shortcut to United Center; live at Roosevelt/State or Clark/Division, work at IMD with a one-seat ride; etc.).

Yes, it’s a vision. But that’s what planning is all about. Good planning should not be proclaiming “there will never be sufficient demand for Metra to stop its trains at the Circle Line.” (Especially not when even today there are more than a few existing or prospective IMD employees or visitors who live along Metra’s BNSF, UP-W, MD, or NCS Lines and would clearly have a shorter and more comfortable transit trip via the Circle Line — not to mention the increased travel demand that could come from more intensive development.)

In the past, I’ve argued for expanding the CBD incrementally southward and westward through transit investments. Immense development capacity (and demand) exists right outside the Loop, without overrunning great existing neighborhoods like Ukrainian Village, Pilsen, and Chinatown with inappropriately scaled development. And, as argued above, the Circle Line by itself results in minimal new accessibility for households and jobs even within its market area. It’s too far out to be a CBD extender — two miles out from the core when the CBD extends for just one mile — and too close in to really capture many circumferential trips.

It’s not Metra’s fault that there will never be sufficient demand to stop its trains at the Circle Line. Their customers will want to get to the terminals two minutes earlier, because that’s where their jobs will be and that’s where the greatest number of transit connections to elsewhere are available.

For example your comparison of LMA vs IMD suggests that we simply throw in the towel for the future of IMD. Am I to infer from your comments that there’s apparently no way possible for it to learn from LMA and get bigger and denser? Hence, why bother — and for certain don’t build a major transit connection that could really supercharge city and regional access to IMD (not to mention all of the other under-developed land along Ashland between Archer and North — and there is far more TOD-ripe under-developed land along Ashland than there is along the Clinton Subway corridor, despite your assertion to the contrary).

Likewise, you state that “Metra trains will never stop at the Circle Line” (despite that being one of the core premises of the Circle Line concept). This type of statement is in direct contradiction to your own critique of the 2016 plans, where you argue “you can’t get what you don’t ask for” in relation to transit investments. CTA’s asking for it. Yes, Metra always says no to just about anything that means making their service more user-friendly. But building the Circle Line is a necessary, if not sufficient, condition to getting Metra to connect to it. Never is a very long time. Why say “never”?

Plans like the Circle Line have the ability to be transformative and allow futures dramatically different from what would occur otherwise. Whether this is desirable or not is debatable, but as I read your post all I come away with is not a debate about what the future should be but rather the sense of “why bother”. That is very dispiriting. Pessimism does not make for good plans.