From the FT, 26 October:

The world economy will face higher prices than in the past decade as more oil comes from �politically unstable� countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, and production costs rise, the International Energy Agency warned on Tuesday.

The western oil watchdog said in its World Energy Outlook 2004 that US crude would cost in real terms $27 a barrel in 2010, rising to $31 in 2020 and $34 in 2030… The oil industry has been raising its long-term oil price forecasts since the beginning of the year, but today most companies still base investment using $20 a barrel as long-term reference.

Higher prices, political (and thus price) instability, and dwindling reserves. Sounds lovely, doesn’t it? And to think that, had a President Gore started an Energy Independence campaign in 2000, we’d be halfway down the path to cutting off mideast oil.