Cook’s demographic shifts

A short explanation of demographic change in Cook County:

Cook County is still growing in population; it added 271,674 residents in the 1990s, more people than any other Midwestern county. As goes Chicago, so goes Cook — white population declining (Cook: 57% in 1990, 48% in 2000), black population steady but slowly trickling outwards, Latino and Asian populations growing and more than making up for the white decline. The region’s population is still growing, but out-migration and aging are slowly reducing the number of whites.

It’s the same white flight as before, although it’s happening nowhere near as quickly as in the ’70s or ’80s — and now the flight is more to the nation’s suburbs, the South and West, than to the region’s suburbs. Strong NIMBY sentiment to the north, northwest, and west has actually had an effect on growth at the fringe; the only sector in which sprawl is welcomed is in the southwest.

Pretty dramatic racial succession continues at the city’s northwest and southwest edges, in the south suburbs, and in the near west suburbs all the way into DuPage. Belmont-Cragin, Cicero, Berwyn, Little Village, Back of the Yards, Ashburn, and Harvey, among many other areas, are experiencing fast-paced succession right now. Oak Park, Skokie, and the near north suburbs are undergoing slow-motion white flight, but the trendline is still clear: whites are leaving, replaced by Latinos (mostly), Blacks (sometimes), and Asians (rarely). White population growth is in the city’s Yuppie Belt and in the far suburbs.

The other side of the story is immigration: a surge of mostly Latino immigrants is filling the northwest and southwest sides, but also spilling into many Cook County suburbs. Asian immigration is fairly well dispersed, but explains some of the declining white population in the near north and northwest suburbs.

The change in Cook’s demographics are a large factor in why Illinois has tilted Democratic. City Democrats and far-suburban Republicans balance one another out, Downstate is divided, and the near suburbs hold the balance. As the Cook suburbs have gone Democratic, they’ve taken the entire state with them. As recently as summer of 2000, Illinois was still considered a swing state.

(A rather depressing side note: see the clot of new African American residents in Little Village, by the south branch of the river? that’s the census tract housing the Cook County Jail.)

Geography of murder

[posted at urbanphoto]

The Chicago Tribune is running a series on murder here in “the nation’s murder capital.” (Gary has a murder rate three times as high; Detroit’s is twice as high. Chicago had the largest number of murders, even though it trails NYC and LA in population.)

Police have long recited the mantra that most murders are the result of a deadly trinity that runs rampant in Chicago: street gangs, guns and drugs. Concerned citizens, from parents and priests to social workers and professors, lay heavy blame on a violent culture that has gone unchecked, nurtured by poverty and a collapsed social structure. Reformed gang members say the city’s strong sense of neighborhood identification fuels territorial battles and allegiances to gangs. Others even point to the city’s colorful history of gangsters and rampant corruption.

The accompanying map shows how strikingly localized the crime is here, though. The massive redevelopment of public housing (I added blue notations for points of interest and public housing projects) has dispersed gang activity, and thus murders, from those sites and into adjacent neighborhoods.

Demographic figures seem to back up the police assertion that the murder is highly concentrated sociogeographically. Those killed are demographically almost identical to those suspected of doing the killing. Both are (+/- 3%) 90% male, 75% Black and 20% Hispanic. 72.6% of victims and 86.8% of accused have prior arrest records. 64% of victims were between 17 and 30. 80% of murders were committed with guns.

Four new stripmalls!

The highlight of today’s Plan Commission meeting: four new strip shopping centers, all with a moat of parking in front, many with “green roofs.” (Agenda item 12, which was left off due to a typo, was a Target.)

Why does black parking lot + green roof = green? Wouldn’t there be a much greater environmental impact, at much lower cost, if the parking lot were green (pervious surface, at least, or maybe no parking at all!) and the roof were black, or white, or silver?

A palace for a cult, perhaps?

The four-story, 24,000-foot building at 1309 N. Ashland Ave. — housing the offices of some Polish honor society — is for sale for $1.9 million. It’s best known for its standing-room auditorium, which was called the Centrum when MP Shows was booking there. (I saw Godspeed You Black Emperor there, which was appropriate given the frayed edges of the space.) But what reuse potential is there for function rooms, offices, and auditorium?

To see the listing, click here and enter MLS # 03140419.

Reconstruction

According to Citylink, construction on the North Avenue Streetscaping Project is supposed to begin today. No sign of it outside, though. The streetscaping can’t do much, since North is a state highway (route 72); even the street trees added will be on bulb-outs in side streets alongside the road, not along the actual road. Thus, the drawings looked kind of boring. We’ll see what it ends up looking like, though.

Property tax: even Daley’s wrong

“Daley said higher assessments, due to increasing property values, will result in property tax increases in Chicago of 10 percent to 50 percent this fall. If relief isn’t offered soon, families may be forced out of their homes, he said… Daley called on the General Assembly to impose a statewide cap of 7 percent on the annual increase in residential assessments.”

First, no one’s going to get a 50% increase in their tax bill — unless, of course, Daley has a secret budget hidden behind his back that figures tax rates will go up that high. (Hm…) Second, the 7% assessment increase would be a boon to my neighbors and me, but someone will have to pay the price. If taxes on the trendy north side plateau, the difference will have to be made up by higher tax rates for everyone — but especially in decidedly un-trendy parts of town.

The legislation will raise already bloody rates in south Cook County, where resegregation has slammed property values with the “segregation tax.” Already, property tax rates in Ford Heights are 314% higher than in Inverness, and 247% higher than in Chicago. Do we really want to exacerbate this situation?

(On a side note, I had to go through this 83-page file, listing tax rates for all of Cook County’s 1,000+ taxing districts, just to find those numbers. Man, does this place ever need tax reform of a different sort.)

Property tax panic

The arrival of new property tax valuations last year sent many Chicagoans into a panic, with assessed property values spiking in many communities since the last assessment cycle three years ago. Of course, the panic was largely without merit — a decrease in rates typically offsets any assessment increase, resulting in a complete wash.

Outraged messages filled bulletin boards (“My mother’s tax bill in Lake View just went from $7,500, which was obscene, to $11,500. That’s a FIFTY-THREE percent increase”) and I was left to wonder whether my tax bill had gotten lost in the mail or something. No, of course not — I got a bill two weeks ago which was substantially the same as the ones issued last year. (How, exactly, these people managed to buy houses without understanding how property taxes work is what mystifies me.)

In an effort to squelch calls for various elected officials’ heads, County Assessor Houlihan released estimated tax bills for the city and many suburbs, which naturally showed only an incremental increase in taxes paid:

“Houlihan, who lives in the Lakeview neighborhood, saw the assessment on his three-story greystone increase 30 percent. But his projections indicate his tax bill would only rise by less than 6 percent, to $18,129…

“The assessor’s estimates show the city’s tax rate dropping to 6.021 percent from 7.277 percent. The multiplier is shown as declining to 2.41 from 2.4689.”

Furthermore, property tax revolts always struck me as being at least a bit unfair. Sure, there are some groups which are genuinely impacted by rising property taxes — seniors in particular. Yet the overall thrust of much of the complaining is that public policy needs to be tilted even more in favor of homeowners, who already have secured massive entitlements from all levels of government — home mortgage interest deduction, “nest egg” capital gains exemption, and in Cook County, a lower “equalized assessed value” on residential property (such that residential pays half the property taxes of commercial uses, including large apartment buildings).

All of these government incentives for homeownership have the overall effect of raising housing prices beyond what they would be without said incentives. Ever-higher housing prices are considered by many homeowners to be their god-given right, for some reason, and those people who expect to profit on their homes eventually should relish paying their rising property taxes.

A property tax “revolt” won’t necessarily get anyone anywhere, either. In California, Proposition 13 was passed in the late 1970s, an era of high and rising property valuations — yet its passage did not do anything to slow the pace of gentrification there since. It has, however, resulted in severe cuts to local government spending, rising sales taxes and often regressive “user fees”, budget crises during recessions, incredible tax base competition between municipalities (resulting in suburban sprawl), and wealthy long-term property owners (including landlords!) getting off scot-free — essentially paying the same in taxes as they did in 1978.

Just because some people pay less in property taxes doesn’t mean that the taxes won’t come from poor people in another way — higher sales taxes, more gambling, a higher income tax (which would be okay if the state constitution didn’t require a flat rate), or regressive fees. Make no mistake about it: almost every “property tax relief” option you’ve seen floated in recent months will benefit multimillion-dollar Gold Coast mansions as much as (if not more than) they’ll benefit abuelitas in Back of the Yards.

At the same time, many of the same put-upon taxpayers I’ve heard from naturally want to have their cake and eat it, too: complaints about a lack of city services seem directly tied to complaints about one’s tax bill. The complainants typically point at their neighborhood’s lack of services and contrast that to what they see as money being spent downtown — which is a farce, since nearly two-thirds of all Cook County’s property taxes are paid just by downtown Chicago. (Some services, like daily street sweeping, are paid for through supplementary property taxes paid only downtown.) Sure, downtown gets more services, but shouldn’t services be roughly proportionate to taxes paid?

Then again, pretty much the whole city has been getting shortchanged for decades. For instance, Chinatown’s only park was eliminated by the freeways, and its replacement (Ping Tom) wasn’t built until a few years ago — and even then, it was only with TIF money. (Its expansion will only happen thanks to the residential boom in the South Loop; impact fees paid by all those new condos will underwrite the park.)

Or, to take another example, the Bloomingdale Trail is an expensive ($10M, at least) proposition. How did/will Paris and New York City paid/pay for their elevated trails? First, through breathtakingly high taxes. Second, their city cores are packed to the gills (population densities four to eight times as high as in “crowded” north side Chicago!) with rich people, all of whom pay high taxes. Third, the federal government pays most of the bills, anyways. And fourth, something of this scale takes a long time to get to fruition. Millennium Park, every neighborhood activist’s favorite whipping boy, was first proposed back in the 1970s.

On a grand scale, part of the city’s fiscal problem is that Chicago is getting shortchanged by Illinois, and Illinois by Washington. Urban areas almost always generate more wealth for government than they get back in services. (This is particularly interesting because a state’s propensity to vote for the “small government” Republican party is inversely proportional to the federal largesse it receives.)

For instance, in 1999, Illinois was the second largest “donor” state to Washington in dollar terms and the fourth largest in per-capita terms. Almost all of the wealth in Illinois is in the metro area, and again, much of that is generated just by downtown businesses.

Furthermore, anger over property taxes is usually fundamentally misplaced — people look past the “Cook County Treasurer” and assume it’s still the city’s fault. Property taxes only account for 15% of city revenue. Property taxes go to pay for city pensions (42%) and to pay back bonds (58%), not for general government. General government is paid out of an assortment of taxes: sales, income, utilities, “miscellaneous.” Most of your property tax bill goes to the school and park districts or to the county, not to city government.

As a result, complaints about city corruption are often interwoven into complaints about taxes. The continuing hired truck scandal shows that we still have a long way in getting true accountability and transparency from city government — much less Cook County government or Illinois or the feds or even corporations. More efficiency and better responsiveness is something all organizations should be striving for, and something that we deserve as citizens. But good government or bad, there genuinely is a fiscal crisis going on everywhere, and there has been ever since the Nixon era. Governments at all levels in the U.S. and elsewhere are having to make tough decisions about where to spend their money right now, and Chicago is no exception. (Nor are other governments — say, in Washington or New York or Paris — exempt from charges of corruption, nepotism, or malfeasance.)

Chicagoans are used to dealing with one level of government — the city — for everything. Maybe it’s conditioning under the ward system, or maybe it’s because the city takes credit for anything and everything (and therefore sets itself up to take the blame as well). But government goes much, much further than just City Hall: not only what you pay in taxes but also what you get back are determined more by what goes on in Springfield or Washington, or even by the county — and, by extension, the rest of the metro area (suburbanites free-load all sorts of services paid for by city dwellers), more so than by City Hall.

Rosty gets a rezoning

Former U.S. Rep. Dan Rostenkowski and members of his family have begun cashing in on property they own on Chicago�s North Side, property whose value in one case sharply increased after a rezoning was pushed through the City Council by a prot�g� of his…

Breaking with his usual practice, [Alderman] Matlak did not notify the Bucktown [Community Organization] of the proposed rezoning of the Rostenkowski property, Mr. Lipe [president of BCO] says. In fact, when Mr. Lipe last summer asked Mr. Matlak�s office about the status of the long-vacant property, “They said, as far as they knew, nothing was going on.”

[Crain’s this week]

These doings are not quite illegal, but there’s no other way to explain the underhanded upzoning. The upzone increases FAR from 2.2 to 3.0, allowing 36% more floor area: four floors instead of three. Damen Avenue in Bucktown is solidly two to three stories, except for the southernmost reaches — five blocks south of the parcel in question.

Ugh. At least the residents of that fourth-floor condo will have nasty views of the Kennedy Expressway from their front windows.

GOP attacks contract cronyism (but only in Chicago)

Just heard on WBEZ: in the wake of the Hired Truck Program scandal, the Cook County Republican Party has called on the city of Chicago to stop awarding contracts to political contributors.

Hah! Next up, they’ll tackle the Pentagon and the Department of Energy, right?

The program is yet another illustration of contract cronyism or pinstripe patronage, now the all-purpose way for corrupt, nepotistic officials — whether Democrats in Chicago or Republicans in Washington (or Baghdad) — to skirt civil service laws and fortify their political empires through patronage. I’d like to see more Republicans say “outsourcing saves money and improves service delivery” with a straight face these days.

Uptown update

Crain’s reports that Target has signed a letter of intent for a two-story store at Wilson Yard, the hotly contested parcel under the Red Line tracks in the middle of Uptown. Landmark Theatres has already signed its intent; Target will go below the theaters. Needless to say, the neighbors are worried about traffic, etc., and many wrongly think the result will be a stripmall. Ah well.

My favorite reaction to the endless posts whining about how “we need a posh boutique row just like Andersonville with my favorite retailers, blah blah” comes from a poster named Jeremy:

Ever since Bendel’s left Michigan Avenue I have been at a loss. Crate & Barrel is for street urchins, and the unwashed masses. I know Harrod’s was talking about the block across from Marshall Fields & Co., but to be alone in the Wilson Yards would make them the crown jewel of the neighborhood, and our neighborhood the envy of the Americas. I picture Broadway as the new High Street. And what better place to walk the streets before stopping in for High tea…

I understand everyone has their own “pet” store for Wilson Yard. But until we get Ed Bowie’s underground subway put in, really what is the point? […]

I just don’t buy [a boutique strip] for Broadway, the scale of the street and buildings are not conducive to light retail. Alderman Smith fought with Schiller on this point at one of the early development meetings for the Phoenix — she argued for Big Box retail. The neighborhood was designed as an entertainment district, but live action theatres are almost out of the question, (see the struggling Chicago Theater, downtown theatre district, the shuttered Uptown and the stuggling Riv). I don’t think the ballrooms will return and that pretty much leaves the taverns and speakeasys. We could probably get some more of those. Maybe a movie theatre is on the way. DisneyQuest was a dismal failure, our tourist area is well established. That would leave casinos, and gentlemen’s clubs for us though. Maybe we could approach the alderman about a provisional ward legalization of gambling and prostitution. Pshaw to the secondary effects.

Two important points: first, Target has shown a willingness to adapt its store formats to urban locations; their flagship in downtown Minneapolis is the most obvious example. It sits along Minneapolis’ transit mall, and most customers — as at big boxes and department stores in downtown Chicago — arrive via transit. (Wilson Yard straddles the Red Line.) DPD and Alderman Shiller will make sure that new construction there will respect the existing urban fabric; even if both parties are often known for missing the forest for the trees, they’re not that stupid.

Second, everyone loves small, independent shops — even if many Uptown gentrifiers don’t love the small, independent pawn shops and dollar stores that predominate there and instead long for cute, upscale boutiques like those in Andersonville. However, that’s just unrealistic for this particular site: the developer is up against a wall: building new buildings on literally toxic land, paying for a new parking garage for Truman College (at $30,000 a space) and a new CTA station, and selling the housing at below cost. In order to make the development work at all, there’s got to be big money involved — just to break even on the investment needed to build a new building will require rents far, far higher than small businesses can typically pay. Hence, the scores of new buildings on, say, Lincoln in Lincoln Park have empty shop space at street level (or else mortgage brokers’ or dentists’ offices). Even in a neighborhood which loves boutiques and spawns them by the boatload, the boutiques can’t afford the rent on those spaces.

And Target’s interest in the neighborhood introduces a new potential savior for the Uptown Theatre: conversion to large-format retail. Medinah Temple, after all, is now a Bloomingdale’s. Since the economics of running the theatres as entertainment venues is so weak now, retail conversion — which would save the exteriors and significant interior features — could be a very real possibility in the future.

Bank One’s move

“Four big banks once graced the Lasalle Street area of downtown Chicago, their line of march bounding along both sides of the street toward the majestic Chicago Board of Trade building. Bank One is the last to stand on its own.” [NYT]

And with that, Chicago loses its last money-center* bank headquarters — putting the city into the same league as Boston, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, and possibly San Francisco if Wells Fargo is truly in play. Needless to say, Crain’s is shitting its pants, and the trixies are terrified.

Jamie Dimon also is eating his words [scroll to end]: “I did not come here to sell Bank One.” “I have no desire to move back to New York … I am not restless in Chicago.”

* Yeah, that phrase is outdated, but it brings back fond childhood memories of “Wall $treet Week in Review with Louis Rukeyser.”